COVID Impacts Quickly Hit the Economy, American People; Economic, Social Effects Appear Sustained
Nick Hart President of the Data Foundation breaks down the key findings from COVID Impact Survey week 2 data results.
Households across the United States continue to face severe economic and social hardships as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to late-April, results from the COVID Impact Survey’s second week of data collection (May 4-10, 2020) suggest that economic, health, and well-being measures improved little across the country.
Key Findings and Implications
Regional variations in compliance and lack of participation for 18-22 year olds with social distancing and wearing face masks continue to suggest either mixed messaging or unwillingness to comply with CDC guidance. Policymakers and CDC could deploy additional efforts to reinforce guidance and potential benefits for the American people in taking appropriate precautions to avoid the spread of coronavirus.
Slight reductions in behaviors such as avoiding crowds and visiting restaurants across the country suggest growing COVID fatigue with certain restrictions in place as well as variations in how such measures are implemented across the country. Officials could more consistently communicate expectations and policies within their jurisdictions, including those practices that may still be necessary even when existing restrictions or stay-at-home orders are lifted.
Shifting views on the willingness for COVID-19 testing and participation in app-based tracking, with considerable regional and demographic variation, suggest that once policymakers decide on how to apply testing programs, education of the population will likely be needed to encourage participation.
Economic effects and food insecurity affect some demographics and household structures more than others. Policymakers could consider those disproportionately affected in determining strategies, for example, that more effectively encourage symptomatic individuals to stay home from work or to provide support for those who may fear losing their jobs if missing work because of illness.
Mental Health Impacts
Five percent of American people now report a family member or friend who died from COVID-19 or respiratory illness since March, a non-statistically significant increase from 4 percent in late-April. The estimates are relatively unchanged in New York (17% both weeks), but households in Minnesota (2%), Atlanta (8%), Birmingham (8%), and Columbus (3%) experienced statistically significant increases of 2-3 percentage points over the past two weeks. Notably, while 3 percent of whites reported a family member or friend who died from COVID-19, 14 percent of non-Hispanic blacks had such knowledge in May.
Despite an overall increase in knowledge of deaths associated with COVID-19, the number of households indicating a sense of hopelessness one or more days in the prior week declined from 41 percent in late-April to 38 percent in early-May.
Employment Impacts
Official national economic statistics in the United States continue to suggest ongoing challenges for the American people; the COVID Impact Survey’s economic indicators largely align with this perspective. 18 percent of respondents not working reported being furloughed or temporarily laid-off. Among sampled sub-national jurisdictions, Missouri (27%), Atlanta (26%), Baltimore (25%), Birmingham (23%), Chicago (23%), Pittsburgh (22%), Florida (22%), Minnesota (22%), New York (21%), Louisiana (20%), California (19%), and Oregon (19%) were above the national average. Only Colorado (17%), Texas (17%), Cleveland (17%), Columbus (16%), and Phoenix (13%) were at or below the national average among sampled states and cities.
At the same time 39 percent of respondents nationally expected to not be working 30 days from now, which was not meaningfully changed from late April. Notably, Colorado (29%) fell well below this expectation among regions.
For those who are employed, efforts to combat coronavirus by working remotely are not applied equally across the population. While 57 percent of households earning more than $125,000 per year reported working from home, for households earning less than $60,000 per year just 19 percent reported working from home.
Financial and Food Security
Despite the federal government’s economic stimulus effort, households continue to report challenges paying off $400 in unexpected expenses. 16 percent indicated they would not be able to pay off an unexpected $400 expense, relatively unchanged from April (17%). This could suggest that federal policies aimed at reducing economic burdens for the American people either have not yet reached intended audiences or were not sufficient to meet emerging needs.
The COVID Impact Survey also identified ongoing challenges for American households in achieving food security. Approximately 27 percent of American households worried about having enough food over the past month and 22 percent reported that when food ran out they did not have enough money to buy more. Six percent of respondents also received support from food pantries across the country.
Food insecurity also continues to vary across regions. For example, in Louisiana 39 percent worry about food security while 34 percent experience it, well above the national averages. In contrast in Minnesota only 16 percent worried about food insecurity and 12 percent experienced, well below the national averages.
Both worry about and presence of food insecurity were elevated for those without a high school diploma (53% worry, 47% experience), with household incomes less than $30,000 (47%, 41%), and households with children (36%, 32%).
Behavioral Responses to COVID
A large segment of the American people continues to comply with CDC recommendations with minimizing the spread of coronavirus. 84 percent of the American people are now wearing face masks, a statistically significant increase of 6 percentage points from April. In the suburbs the rate is just 75 percent, while in urban areas 87 percent for wearing face masks. Increases were also observed in every region surveyed as well.
The American people are also reporting changing behaviors that may be attributed to mixed guidance from national and state leaders as well as fatigue with measures in place. For example, fewer are avoiding restaurants (69% in May, compared to 72% in April), avoiding public or crowded places (75% v. 80%), and avoiding contact with high-risk people (59% v. 62%). Social distancing measures on average appear unchanged from two weeks ago, with 85 percent of respondents nationally indicating compliance. However, several regions reported statistically significant changes from April to May, such as an 8 percentage point increase in Texas (85% to 93%) and a 10 percentage point decline in Phoenix (89% to 79%). Divergent trends in states and cities will be important to monitor in the coming weeks.
Substantial differences in response behaviors are evident by age groups. Elderly individuals ages 65 or older were more likely than 18-22 year olds to avoid restaurants (74% v. 60%), postpone leisure and social activities (67% v. 50%), avoid public or crowded places (81% v. 61%), maintain social distancing (91% v. 70%), and wipe packages (48% v. 29%).
Willingness to Be Tested or Monitor Symptoms
When it comes to actively supporting data collection efforts to understand the spread of coronavirus, the American people’s expectations and willingness continue to change. In May, 42 percent of individuals indicated a willingness to install a phone application to ask about symptoms, a decrease of 5 percentage points from 48 percent in April.
Given the possibility of mixed messages from officials and leaders across the country, it is also not surprising that the American people have shifting perceptions about willingness to be tested for COVID-19 as well. Today, 64 percent of respondents are willing to be tested for COVID-19 using a q-tip in the cheek or nose, compared to 71 percent in April, a statistically significant decrease of 7 percentage points. Similarly, fewer respondents indicated a willingness to take blood tests to measure immunity (69% v. 71%).
For both methods of testing, large differences are also present across the income spectrum. While households with incomes over $125,000 indicate willingness to be tested (81% and 83%, respectively), households with income less than $60,000 are more than 20 percentage points less likely for each method (58% and 63%, respectively). Regional variations in willingness to test also exist, with the highest sampled rates in Baltimore (86% and 85%, respectively), Columbus (82% and 83%), Cleveland (81% and 84%), and Minnesota (80% and 82%).
Additional data and results will be available in early June.
About the COVID Impact Survey
The COVID Impact Survey is an effort to provide national and regional statistics about health, the economy, and social dynamics in the United States. The COVID Impact Survey is unique in that its methodological approach relies on an address-based random sample and also includes a range of questions about physical health, mental health, and economic security on a single survey. The results provide reliable estimates at the national level as well as for 10 states and 8 metropolitan areas, including for California, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New York, Oregon, Texas, Atlanta, Baltimore, Birmingham, Chicago, Cleveland, Columbus, Phoenix, and Pittsburgh.
